Measuring Economic Uncertainty in China^†

Measuring Economic Uncertainty Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Uncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People’s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recession help shape the actions they ncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People’s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recessio...

Uncertainty in Economic Analysis and the Economic Analysis of Uncertainty∗

Measuring Uncertainty in Games

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Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

The Impact of Exchange Rate and Investor Confidence Uncertainty on Monetary and Economic Uncertainty in Iran

Failure to timely identify the occurrence of various shocks in the foreign exchange market due to the close relationship with the monetary, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty can lead to crises and imbalances. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate and investor confidence on monetary and economic uncertainty in Iran is investigated, specifying a Multivariate GARCH model and the Grange...